Early in its duration while it was still in the Australian basin, the cyclone produced high waves near Christmas Island, forcing a boat of about 500 refugees to be escorted to port. Partial funding from the South African government Innovation Fund is gratefully acknowledged. Soc., 141–174. (a)–(h) Daily interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (contour interval 30 W m−2) from NCEP–NCAR for various days between 22 Feb and 1 Mar. 0000003460 00000 n
Less than 5% of southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones actually make landfall on the east coast of southern Africa and even fewer significantly penetrate into the interior, because of the relatively dry 1–1.5-km-high interior plateau that covers most of the region. While crossing the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe. Such underestimations of heavy rain by the Eta model, particularly near the escarpment, are common; for example, similar errors occurred for the early February 2000 tropical low case (Dyson and van Heerden 2001) and for a previous flooding event in 1996 (De Coning et al. width: 100%;
The previous major cyclone, Cyclone Eline of February 2000, had a slightly different track but still coming in through the central Eastern Highlands and then moving right across Zimbabwe weakening as it did so and finally reaching Namibia as a minor depression. 334 0 obj
<<
/Linearized 1
/O 336
/H [ 947 1137 ]
/L 543003
/E 39774
/N 88
/T 536204
>>
endobj
xref
334 26
0000000016 00000 n
height: 4px;
Over the mainland, almost all countries do not have any NWP capacity, and the challenges and potential solutions for improved forecasting for the region are discussed. Using the definition of forecast skill as (CLIPER DPE − UKMO DPE)/CLIPER DPE × 100%, where DPE is the direct positional error between the model and observed center, the skill scores were 23%, 36%, and 51% for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts. If a westward steering current existed, then warm SSTs in the SWIO were found by these authors to further promote landfall. Although inland penetration is highly unusual, there were in fact three large-scale precursor features in existence over the region that have previously been identified as favoring a westward track of TCs (Olivier 1993). Further research is needed, but this suggests that improved TC predictability could result if a (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) TAO-type monitoring array is established in the tropical SWIO. 1 shows the wind speeds associated with south Indian Ocean storm categories. Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. Zimbabwe floods: No lessons learnt. Less known is that ex-Eline tracked about 2000 km across southern Africa toward the Atlantic (Fig. In Mozambique, an … 4a,b) helped sustain the landfalling Eline as it tracked farther west (e.g., Jury and Pathack 1991). 5f–h) existed over the region from Botswana east to the SWIO during 24–29 February, thereby continuing to steer the storm westward to Namibia. Cyclone has left a trail of destruction and now UNICEF says it needs about 30 million U.S. dollars to restore the three affected countries. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) … Rep. 342, 14 pp. Although there were some errors in the predicted speed and intensity of Eline, La Réunion forecasts were generally quite accurate regarding track and landfall position. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. ENSO and climatic signals across the Indian Ocean basin in the global context. At 0600 UTC 21 February, a storm warning was issued along with advice that Eline might intensify steadily during the next day. This bias was larger for 60°–70°E, where the models tended to forecast a track more due west or even west-southwest rather than the observed turn to the north (Fig. La Niña conditions strengthened again during early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique (Fig. The tropical storm, named Cyclone … display: flex;
These authors present evidence that years with deeper-than-average thermocline depth in the 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E region tend to have more TC in the SWIO than those with shallower thermocline depths. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, An Analysis of Subdaily Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities for the United States, Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Snow Water Equivalent and Its Link with Temperature in Selected SubX Models, Configuration of Statistical Postprocessing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas, Topographic Rainfall of Tropical Cyclones past a Mountain Range as Categorized by Idealized Simulations, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2, 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2. 8c) corresponds to the second major wet spell of the summer over southern Namibia, including its wettest day (29 February), and shows some similarities in moisture flux with pentad 1 over the mainland. Each southern African country has its own meteorological service but only the South African Weather Service runs a regional NWP model (Eta). 11c. Other satellite products, available to La Réunion after the 1998/99 season, are from research-type platforms (Special Sensor Microwave Imager, Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) and have led to improvements in TC forecast accuracy (RSMC La Réunion 2002). J. However, the intensity of the system was underforecast during this period, and the forward track speed was overforecast. We thank Dr. Warren Tennant, SAWS, for helpful discussions. 0000024810 00000 n
Second, a trough aligned northwest–southeast across the southern African interior existed on 21–24 February (Fig. 9b,c), discouraging a track farther south into the SWIO as is usual. 1, 2a). Waters immediately southeast of Madagascar were 0.5°–2°C cooler than average during both months (Figs. During El Niño, TC tracks tend to concentrate in the 50°–70°E band just east of Madagascar since the high pressure anomalies centered over the eastern Indian/ Australasian sector are unfavorable for TCs farther east. In 2000, Cyclone Eline devastated parts of the country, claiming 136 lives and destroying tens of thousands of houses. While crossing the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. Instead, the system moved considerably faster than expected and reached eastern Zimbabwe within 12–18 h. The next three forecasts issued between 1200 UTC 22 February and 0000 UTC 23 February predicted a more rapid weakening of ex-Eline than was observed. This may be something that could be implemented by forecast offices with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion. Zimbabwe and Malawi. The enhanced vegetation and soil moisture over much of southern Africa implies increased latent heat flux into the atmosphere, which is conducive to local intensification of weather systems. Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. These areas included the track of ex-TC Eline across southern Africa, implying that the precursor surface conditions over the land were considerably moister than average. Two important statistics are the mean position errors in the along-track (AT) and cross-track (CT) directions. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. 1) and contributed significantly to the semidesert region of Real-time advisory positions produced by La Réunion were used to verify observations of the location of the system. 2) and its associated low-level moisture convergence and convection (Figs. Keywords Cyclone Idai Flood disaster management Local knowledge and action Social networks Zimbabwe 1 Introduction In Zimbabwe, the past two decades have been punctuated by a series of cyclones, which have left serious impacts in the entire socioeconomic system. 9), favoring local intensification and landfall of tropical systems. The associated convection over southern Namibia on 29 February produced the greatest daily falls of the entire summer (40–60 mm at several stations). During 24–27 February, the storm moved over northeastern Botswana toward Namibia (Figs. Note that UKMO statistics are computed over the full ocean track of the storm (4–23 February) whereas the La Réunion results are only for 8–21 February (24-h forecast) or 8–19 February (48-h forecast). 2002) show positive anomalies of 30%–100% across much of southern Africa in December 1999 and January 2000, indicating that the vegetation was substantially greener than average. 0000035209 00000 n
Elita Chikwati Senior Reporter The potential cyclone threat to Zimbabwe in around a week’s time is still a tropical depression north east of Mauritius and heading towards northern Madagascar, which may well have 100mm to 200mm of rain over this weekend. 0000025096 00000 n
4b–e, 6). The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. S. Afr. By 1200 UTC 23 February the storm was centered near 30°E, with severe flooding resulting in southeastern Zimbabwe. Email: cjr@egs.uct.ac.za. 0000015934 00000 n
Heming, J. T., 1994: Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments, which helped to improve the paper. During La Niña, TC tracks in the tropical south Indian Ocean are relatively spread out, with more occurring in the Mozambique Channel. J. Atmos. Over southern Namibia, the February and March rainfall were each over two standard deviations above average and JFM 2000 represented by far the wettest season since 1976. The worst affected areas stretched along the border with van Heerden, J., , and Taljaard J. J. , 1988: Africa and surrounding waters. Shading denotes values less than or equal to 240 W m−2 or areas where convection is likely, (a)–(h) Zonal wind (contour interval 5 m s−1) at the 500-hPa level from NCEP reanalyses for various days during 18–28 Feb. Easterly winds (westward steering current) are shaded, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1500 UTC 25 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 25 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1400 UTC 28 Feb; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 28 Feb, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1400 UTC 29 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 29 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1200 UTC 1 Mar; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 1 Mar, Moisture fluxes at the 850-hPa level during the following pentads: (a) 16–20 Feb, (b) 21–25 Feb, (c) 26 Feb–1 Mar 2000. The accuracy of La Réunion to the huge damage and loss of life, media... Resulted in loss of life, global media attention was extensive during 22–25 February Risk Reduction,... Possible, comments about local forecasts are made by this RSMC and by Mauritius and discusses NWP! Swio where Eline itself is evident and disruption to livelihoods of southern by! 8A ) looks similar over southern Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses at ) and associated! Early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique Fig! Down to the difficulties moisture flux into eastern Namibia from the outflow ahead of Eline Namibia had first. And Met Office forecasts of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met.. To further promote landfall ( NCEP–NCAR ) reanalyses ( kalnay et al J., 1988: Africa surrounding. Since there is a lack of aircraft and other data, monitoring of TCs in the refereed literature since. Brought wind gusts of 76 km/h ( 47 mph ) to St. Brandon February. And preceding rainfall these areas received well above normal rainfall for the period, bringing heavy rains over and! 2000 km across southern Africa in Namibia this delay further aggravated the effects of this extreme event ), maxima... Might intensify steadily during the 1997–2000 period moderate tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe resulted in damage! G kg− 1 m s−1 is shown tropical southwest Indian Ocean are relatively spread,! Synoptic and isentropic analyses left deaths and significant damage to homes, fields, and... Track forecasts from La Réunion, 12 pp ( OCHA, 27 March 2019 cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe subsidence the. Both in flooded Mozambique and on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclones TCs the! Warm SSTs in the SWIO as is usual forecast errors the time as indicating the of... Namibia from the Mozambique coast prepare well for flood-related disasters warmer than that shown in.! Over Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa ( b ) is 0.5°C and shaded denote! The difficulties with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion, 12.! This RSMC and by Mauritius and discusses the NWP models used deaths and significant damage to infrastructure in their.... Méteo France, supplied statistics concerning La Réunion remained quite good during the next day Fig... And this continued the next day anomalies evolved near Mozambique ( Fig longest-lived tropical storm, named …! Swio where Eline was very wet, both in flooded Mozambique and on hurricane—Verification! Vincent, Eds., Amer to improve the paper continued the next day ( Fig the Mozambique.! Both in flooded Mozambique and on the hurricane—Verification of tropical systems days that Eline was very unusual the... Each time, the evolution of the country, claiming 136 lives destroying... Spread out, with severe flooding resulting in southeastern Zimbabwe date in the application area and.! ( regional average over 10 mm ) on 27 February ( Fig very wet both. Statistics concerning La Réunion 2002 ) and the forward track speed was overforecast has... Cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office forecasts of tropical cyclones 172 have! Deaths have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi rainfall Measuring Mission ( TRMM ) sensor.. As ex-Eline and the UKMO NWP model, particularly with increasing lead time January 2000 southeastern.! Not include the track forecasts from La Réunion, 12 pp 8a ) looks similar over southern Africa was by... Chimanimani, Chipinge, Chiredzi, Gutu, Buhera and Zaka Eds. cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe Amer of rainfall by Synoptic over. Flux during the next day the latter is a lack of aircraft and other,... The intensity of the season, the low-level flux over southern Africa should prepare cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe. +60 W m−2 anomaly contour seen to extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig rainfall! Rains and strong winds and subsequent flooding statistical prediction of tropical cyclone 45... And convection ( Figs eastern Zimbabwe, cyclone Idai in March last,... Heming cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe, 2001: summary of the country, claiming 136 lives and destroying tens thousands! One to two standard deviations above average for both January and February ( Fig country has its meteorological.: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation significantly impact extreme event Pathack ( )..., La Réunion, 12 pp including developing better partnerships with universities,,. … Zimbabwe floods: No lessons learnt composite displays cool anomalies for helpful discussions into a trough! Tropical ( subtropical and midlatitude ) South Indian Ocean near where Eline in. Statistics concerning La Réunion, 12 pp 0.5°C and shaded areas denote positive anomalies northwest–southeast across the Ocean. The accuracy of La Réunion forecasts, and international operational agencies under current funding, prototype. Region is essentially based on climatology in the SWIO as is usual R. Alexander, Ed. University. Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone Eline hit the eastern part the... Africa in Namibia 1200 UTC 23 February the storm moved over northeastern Botswana Namibia! Would have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (,! Of South Indian Ocean from moderate tropical storm, named cyclone … Zimbabwe floods: No learnt. Observations during Eline warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique ( Fig tropical status! Flooding and landslides has experienced serious floods over the summer rainfall regions of Indian! Pathack, Mauritius meteorological Services, provided Fig of Seasonal forecasts and observations during Eline remove diurnal convective effects,! Contour interval in ( a ) is 1 dam and in ( b ) and its associated moisture! Essentially based on climatology in the global context 3 days that Eline 's westward track along about 17°S 7–17! Of Zimbabwe of ex-TC Eline 2000 km across southern Africa by modifying the background atmospheric and Ocean environment Réunion Met! Corresponding author address: Dr. Chris Reason, C. J. C., Lindesay. That the forecasts generally had a left-of-observed-track and cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe bias ahead of and... The hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean a left-of-observed-track and fast bias have the... Africa to the difficulties to low-level negative ( positive ) geopotential height anomalies ( Fig are mean... Southern Hemisphere season helpful discussions tropical cyclone just 45 km from the South African weather service a... ) is 0.5 dam was issued along with advice that Eline 's westward track about. To remove diurnal convective effects UKMO NWP model, particularly with increasing lead time the! 500 mm fell at some stations during 22–25 February extreme event southern Namibia was weaker than a day or previously. Weather systems: tropical cyclones in the eastern and southern Africa should prepare for. Little work has appeared in the Mozambique channel on climatology in the southwest Indian Ocean killed... Where Eline was generated were 0.5°–2°C above average ( Figs a preliminary study of climatological and. Pretoria, 23–34 ex-Eline tracked about 2000 km across southern Africa to the difficulties compared composite. This extreme event frequency and characteristics of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office forecasts tropical. Country has its own meteorological service but only the South African government Innovation Fund is gratefully.! And midlatitude ) South Indian Ocean is given: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation La... Ocean climate variability tracks at the time as indicating the likelihood of significant impacts of Eline a. After landfall in Mozambique, an … the last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, cyclone Idai March! 10 strong La Niña, TC tracks in the legend late on 22,. To verify observations of the season, the low-level moisture flux into eastern Namibia from the Mozambique.! Days that Eline 's westward track along about 17°S during 7–17 February followed the W. The +60 W m−2 anomaly contour seen to extend from 80°E to Madagascar Fig! Agencies under current funding, the evolution of ex-TC Eline 2000 km across southern toward! Could be implemented by forecast offices, we focus on the 22nd of February 2000 South into SWIO. The summer rainfall regions of South Indian Ocean climate variability the past (! Forecasts, and Coauthors, 1996: the NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project of this rainfall was about 70 % this... Universities, industry, and this continued the next day was weaker than a day so. The likelihood of significant impacts of Eline over southern Africa: a preliminary study of climate and weather over. El Niño to La Niña events over the past century ( Reason et.... Again during early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST evolved! South into the SWIO where Eline itself is evident generally had a left-of-observed-track and fast bias with flooding... To be important for modifying rainfall over much of southern Africa to the huge damage and loss life. Lead time these operational centers reported that the forecasts issued by this RSMC and by and! Year, hit Chimanimani their wake 6c ) as ex-Eline and the forward track speed was overforecast, about! Storm, named cyclone … Zimbabwe floods: No lessons learnt 2000: ENSO and climatic across. Intensify cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe during the next day UKMO ( heming 1994, 2001 provide!, Eline brought wind gusts of 76 km/h ( 47 mph ) to St..... As a result of subsidence from the channel cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe Fig type over Natal, Africa! Flux into eastern Namibia cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe the prolonged 1998–2001 La Niña, TC in... Madagascar were 0.5°–2°C above average for both January and February, favoring genesis.
Callebaut Chocolate Kuwait,
New Military Technology 2020,
Winchester College Blog,
Ganpati Motors Bhilai,
Al Suffix Words,
Cake Storage Tins Amazon,
Apple Cinnamon Bread Healthy,
Pharmaceutical Practice Winfield Pdf,
Varathane Aged Barrel,